The Outcome of General Elections 2024 in India
We had begun our previous note on the General Elections in India with a discussion on the Prime Minister Narendra Modi assuming the role of a Head Priest of the newly built temple to Ram in Ayodhya to coalesce a Hindu majoritarian community that will stand by his aggressive pushing of a neo-liberal economic agenda. We also discussed the all-out efforts by the Modi government to decimate all opposition by naked use of state power. The election results as predicted by the crony media’s ‘exit polls’ confirmed the total success of this policy. Only to be proved totally wrong by the actual election results! Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party despite all the drama around the temple of Ayodhya, was squarely defeated in Ayodhya itself. It remained the single largest party in the Parliament, but was far short of the majority needed to form a government. It needed the support of two regional allies (with whom it had entered into an electoral alliance just before the elections) to form the government for the third time in a row. The opposition parties which had been written off by the crony press, came back with a stronger mandate. The cult of the person of Narendra Modi lost much of its shine. Modi himself, in his Varanasi constituency, could only garner 54% of the votes polled as against 64% he had got in the previous election. In his own constituency his popularity instead of surging had dipped substantially.
The people of India had made use of whatever little space available to them in the ‘democratic governance’ judiciously. In fact, virtually all actors in the electoral politics, the ruling party and opposition parties and the people at large could claim success in the election. Modi’s BJP could form the government and the opposition had successfully diminished the image and presence of the BJP in the parliament. The people could rejoice that the Juggernaut unleashed by Modi had lost a few of its many wheels and could no longer roll freely, crushing the people under it.
Several factors contributed to what is effectively being seen as a defeat for Narendra Modi’s politics of hatred and polarisation on religious lines. We can identify four most important factors. Firstly, the anger of the farmers (effectively the middle and rich peasants but also the small peasants) not only with the neo-liberal farm product marketing policy of the government but also the way it sought to crush the farmer’s movement. This meant that the farmers of the five major states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan voted against the BJP. The second major factor was the widespread belief that if the BJP won with a resounding majority it would dismantle the secular, democratic and egalitarian guarantees of the Constitution of India, especially the guaranty of minority rights and the provision of positive discrimination in favour of the historically oppressed castes and tribes. In essence it was feared that the Hindu Upper Caste Male domination will be constitutionally reinforced. This turned the oppressed castes (Dalits) and the minority communities against the BJP. The third factor operated mainly in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka where the overt Hindu posturing was seen as a return to Brahmanic caste dominance, something which the people of these states had fought resolutely and successfully. The fourth element related to the perception that the Modi led BJP was seeking to demolish the very basis of the possibility of democratic dissent by decimating the opposition, especially those regionally rooted. The people of Bengal and Maharashtra were especially angered by the way the regional political parties were treated by the Modi government, which sought to break them up by buying off the weak leaders and foisting false charges against the others.
Despite these signs of optimism in the struggle against the emergent fascist like dictatorship there are several disconcerting elements. The resounding victory of the BJP in Orissa, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and its continued strong presence in the North East. The BJP still retains a large vote share of about 37% without any substantial change from the previous election. It is quite clear that what has been won is a respite from the relentless growth of the fascist elements and it is quite possible that this gain can be reversed by adroit management. At the same time we may be a little hopeful that the aggressive majoritarian and anit-minority stance which Modi personally promoted during the election campaign may weaken a bit, as it doesn’t seem to have paid off as expected. Given the fact that the BJP no longer has the strength to push through controversial bills in the parliament, the anxiety about it changing the constitution to dilute provisions relating to secularism, democracy and social justice in the Constitution. We may also expect a little weakening of the personality cult of Modi, given the discomfort felt by the ‘holding company’ of the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). It is widely believed that this electoral setback for the BJP was caused by the withdrawal of the RSS from active election work, which was unhappy about the demise of internal dialogue and the rise of Modi-Shah as semi-divine saviour figures. But then little long-term shift is possible given the closeness of the two outfits.
The Indian and international corporate houses continue to support the BJP wholeheartedly and see it as the spearhead of neo-liberal conquest of the Indian economy, which will at the same time bail out the recession bound world capital. In the cabinet formation, the BJP retains the key portfolios and the same ministers have returned to the helm of affairs. Its main ally, the Telugu Desam Party is a well-known champion of neo-liberalism which in fact lost elections previously in Andhra Pradesh because of this blind faith. It is unlikely that the aggressive policy changes will be halted.
The political discomfiture faced by the BJP and the fact that several states have appeared as safe havens, social movements have the opportunity to strengthen themselves and assert their interests. The left and liberal forces have to identify the specific issues faced different sections of the population and built active movements around them.
28th June 2024
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